India Becomes a Major Diesel Supplier to Europe as Russian Supplies Remain Tight

India is emerging as an increasingly important supplier of diesel to Europe as Russian exports remain severely constrained and shipments from the United States show signs of weakening, according to energy intelligence firm Vortexa.

Indian refiners accounted for around 60 per cent of the diesel and gasoil volumes that passed through the strategically important Bab-el-Mandeb shipping route towards Europe in August, highlighting India's growing role in meeting the region's refined-fuel requirements.

Around 2,00,000 barrels per day (bpd) of diesel and gasoil crossed the Bab-el-Mandeb in August on vessels bound for Europe. The figure was close to the level recorded a year earlier, following a sharp slowdown in shipments through the route during March and April.

India's growing presence in the European diesel market is largely supported by its substantial refining capacity. India is currently the world's fourth-largest refining nation, with installed capacity of around 258.1 million tonnes per annum. Since this capacity is significantly higher than domestic fuel consumption, Indian refiners have considerable scope to export petroleum products.

India exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products during 2025-26, placing it among the world's major exporters of refined fuels. European markets have increasingly become important destinations as sanctions, refinery disruptions and changing shipping routes continue to reshape global fuel trade.

However, the sustainability of India's rising diesel exports could face challenges if crude supplies into the country remain under pressure.

Vortexa data showed that crude and condensate shipments into India fell for a second consecutive month in August, reaching around 3.8 million bpd. That was substantially lower than the 4.8 million bpd recorded during the same period a year earlier.

The tightening of Europe's diesel supply is particularly significant because Russia was previously one of the region's major sources of refined fuel. Russian seaborne diesel and gasoil exports averaged only around 1,50,000 bpd during the first 25 days of August, according to Vortexa.

That represented a decline of approximately 6,10,000 bpd from a year earlier and was 81 per cent below the five-year seasonal average.

Russia's decision to lift or partially relax diesel export restrictions from September 1 may provide some relief, but a rapid recovery in supplies is far from certain. Continued Ukrainian drone attacks have affected Russian refineries and export infrastructure, adding further uncertainty to global refined-fuel markets.

Vortexa recorded 32 attacks on Russian refineries during July and August, underscoring the operational challenges facing the country's refining and export network.

The changing trade flows underline India's growing importance in the global energy market. With Europe seeking alternatives to Russian fuel and Indian refiners possessing significant export capacity, India is well positioned to fill part of the supply gap.

However, whether Indian refiners can maintain their current position will depend not only on European demand but also on the availability and cost of crude oil needed to keep India's refineries operating at high utilisation levels.