IMD Predicts Slightly Weaker Monsoon in 2026, Rainfall Likely Below Average

In its latest long-range forecast, the India Meteorological Department has indicated that the 2026 southwest monsoon may fall short of normal levels, raising concerns for agriculture and water resources across the country.

According to the IMD, rainfall during the June to September monsoon season is expected to be around 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a margin of error of ±5%. This places the overall outlook in the “below normal” category, broadly ranging between 90% and 95% of the average. The LPA, calculated for the period 1971–2020, stands at 87 cm.

The weather agency also noted that a revised and more precise forecast will be released in the last week of May.

On the global climate front, current conditions in the Pacific Ocean show a transition from weak La Niña-like patterns toward neutral ENSO conditions. However, climate models, including the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), suggest that El Niño conditions could develop during the monsoon season—a factor often associated with weaker rainfall in India.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which significantly influences global weather. While El Niño (warming phase) tends to weaken monsoons in India, La Niña (cooling phase) usually supports stronger rainfall.

Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, but forecasts indicate a possible shift to a positive IOD phase toward the latter part of the monsoon. This could partially offset adverse impacts, as positive IOD conditions are generally linked to better rainfall in India.

The IMD emphasized that sea surface temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans are being closely monitored, as they play a crucial role in shaping the strength and distribution of the monsoon.

Overall, while the monsoon is not expected to fail, the slightly subdued outlook could have implications for farming, reservoir levels, and rural economy if the deficit persists.

With inputs from IANS