Between the Devil and the Deep Sea: Iran Crisis Leaves Pakistan Strategically Cornered

New Delhi: Rapidly unfolding developments in Iran have triggered alarm in Pakistan, with continuing protests and US President Donald Trump’s threat of regime change placing Islamabad in a state of strategic anxiety.

According to officials, a series of emergency meetings have been convened involving Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, ISI chief, National Security Adviser General Asim Malik, Southern Commander Lt General Rahat Naseem, and other senior security officials. A potential US–Iran confrontation is viewed as a serious risk for Pakistan, as it would render the Pakistan-Iran border highly volatile, with the danger of spillover violence.

Pakistan’s security establishment is already stretched thin, grappling with tensions along the Durand Line with the Taliban, heightened deployment on the India-Pakistan border, and ongoing operations against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Nationalist Army (BLA). Officials admit that the country cannot afford additional border instability due to manpower constraints.

The situation is further complicated by unrest in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Intelligence inputs suggest that Pakistan, facing acute personnel shortages, has even drawn in terror groups such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Lashkar-e-Tayba to counter the TTP and BLA, underscoring the severity of its internal security challenges.

Initially, Islamabad believed Washington’s warnings to Tehran were largely rhetorical. However, officials now concede that the threat of a US-Iran conflict is real. Beyond border volatility, Pakistan is increasingly concerned about potential demands from the United States in the event of military action against Iran.

Senior officials say Washington could seek access to Pakistani military bases or airspace to conduct operations against Iran. This prospect has caused deep unease in Islamabad. Pakistan had moved quickly to re-engage the US following Trump’s return to office, projecting improved bilateral ties without anticipating the strategic costs of a possible Iran conflict.

Granting bases or airspace to the US would severely damage Pakistan’s standing in the region and inflame domestic sentiment. Public anger is already high over military action against the Taliban, and any perceived support for operations against Iran could intensify accusations that Pakistan is aligning against Muslim countries.

An Intelligence Bureau official warned that a conflict in Iran could also trigger significant internal unrest in Pakistan. While public opinion may demand opposition to US actions, the establishment’s renewed ties with Washington would limit Islamabad’s room to manoeuvre.

Additionally, a conflict would likely lead to a surge in refugees crossing into Pakistan, exacerbating economic and security pressures already facing the country.

Pakistan remains on high alert as diplomatic outreach has been initiated with Saudi Arabia and Turkey to convey concerns over the deteriorating situation in Iran. Analysts note that Islamabad finds itself trapped between competing pressures—unable to alienate domestic opinion, Iran, or regional partners, yet equally constrained in refusing potential US demands.

As observers describe it, Pakistan is caught in a classic “devil and the deep sea” dilemma, with no easy options amid a rapidly intensifying regional crisis.

With inputs from IANS