BNP Emerges Front-Runner as India Reaches Out; Fears of Jamaat–ISI Interference Rise Ahead of Bangladesh Elections

New Delhi: Relations between India and Bangladesh have deteriorated sharply since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. The new Muhammad Yunus–led interim government, influenced heavily by Jamaat-e-Islami, has added to India’s concerns. Despite this, New Delhi recognises the strategic importance of a stable partnership with Bangladesh and has strengthened its outreach to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

Although India’s past relations with BNP-led governments were uneasy, both sides have recently shown a willingness to reset ties. The BNP, too, has acknowledged the value of maintaining strong relations for the benefit of both nations and the wider region.

A significant step by the BNP was its decision to contest the upcoming elections on its own, without aligning with Jamaat-e-Islami as it had in the past. This move aligns with India’s interests, given Jamaat’s proximity to Pakistan’s ISI and its long-standing efforts to push Bangladesh back toward a pre-1971 political landscape. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message wishing BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia a speedy recovery — and the BNP’s warm public response — further indicates improving relations.

The BNP, in a statement thanking the Indian Prime Minister, wrote:
“BNP expresses its sincere gratitude to the Honourable Prime Minister of India… for his thoughtful message and kind wishes for the speedy recovery of BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia. BNP deeply appreciates this gesture of goodwill and the expression of readiness to extend support.”

Growing Concerns Over Jamaat–ISI Influence

Indian intelligence officials say that the strengthening of India–BNP ties — and the BNP’s strong prospects in the February elections — has alarmed both Jamaat-e-Islami and Pakistan. With the Awami League barred from contesting the elections, the political landscape appears tilted in favour of the BNP.

An Intelligence Bureau official claimed that efforts are underway to manipulate election outcomes to keep Jamaat in a dominant position. The ISI is reportedly concerned that a BNP government would hinder its operations inside Bangladesh, while Jamaat fears losing its political influence and its ability to push radical agendas.

Khaleda Zia’s fragile health is expected to draw significant sympathy for the BNP, potentially boosting its electoral prospects.

Tarique Rahman’s Return: A Political Flashpoint

Officials say Bangladesh’s interim administration has complicated the return of Tarique Rahman — Khaleda Zia’s son and acting BNP chairperson. Although he is expected to travel to Bangladesh soon to be with his ailing mother, the process has been slow. Rahman, who has been in London since 2008, insists on travelling with a new Bangladeshi passport rather than a one-time travel pass. Officials attribute the delay to political insecurity, as he is now widely seen as the future Prime Minister — something Jamaat and the ISI strongly oppose.

Foreign Affairs Adviser Mohammed Touhid Hossain stated that Rahman faces no restrictions:
“A travel pass can be issued in one day… Any assistance required will be provided.”

Rahman, in a Facebook post, expressed his emotional distress and hope for return:
“Like any child, I deeply long for my mother’s affectionate touch… Our family is hopeful that my prolonged wait for repatriation will end as soon as the political reality allows.”

Political Stakes and Security Risks

Experts warn that the Awami League’s ban has left its voter base directionless — many may abstain from voting, while others might shift to the BNP. This dynamic is expected to further push Jamaat and the ISI toward aggressive interference to block a BNP victory.

Officials believe that the Yunus administration, Jamaat, and Pakistan have a major stake in preventing a BNP-led government. Their attempts to influence election results could trigger widespread unrest.

With fears of large-scale violence looming, Bangladesh’s political climate remains tense as the polls draw near — and all eyes are on how external meddling, domestic instability, and India's diplomatic efforts shape the outcome.

With inputs from IANS