PoK Unrest Raises Fears of LoC Escalation as Pakistan Faces Growing Internal Pressure

Growing unrest in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) has triggered heightened vigilance among Indian security agencies amid intelligence inputs suggesting that Pakistan could attempt to escalate tensions along the Line of Control (LoC) to divert attention from the protests.

According to security officials, the situation in PoK remains unsettled, with demonstrations continuing despite attempts by Pakistani authorities to contain the agitation. Officials believe the prolonged unrest is creating increasing political and security pressure on the administration in Islamabad.

An Intelligence Bureau official said the Pakistani Army had initially favoured a forceful crackdown on protesters, but the administration now appeared to be adopting a somewhat more cautious approach.

The shift, according to the official, is partly linked to the changing position of major Pakistani political parties, including the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). While the parties had initially broadly aligned themselves with the military's position, they now appear to be showing greater willingness to engage with the protesters, the official claimed.

Security officials said the Pakistani military leadership could seek to create an external security crisis to shift public and political attention away from the unrest.

Field Marshal Asim Munir, who had earlier taken a hard line against the protests, is facing growing criticism over the government's handling of unrest in PoK and other regions, including Balochistan, according to the officials.

One official claimed that the military leadership could seek to project a stronger posture through a controlled escalation along the LoC. Such an attempt could potentially involve a limited skirmish intended to trigger an Indian military response.

Officials also warned that any cross-border confrontation could potentially be accompanied by an infiltration attempt, using the heightened security situation as cover.

Indian agencies are consequently maintaining a high level of alert along the LoC as well as across Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), officials said. They are also closely monitoring the possibility of militant groups attempting to exploit the situation to carry out attacks inside J&K.

According to security officials, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has continued efforts to build militant networks in J&K. The officials said comparisons being drawn by residents of PoK between their living conditions and those in J&K were adding to the political embarrassment for Pakistan's establishment.

Officials further warned that a major militant attack in J&K could potentially be used by elements within Pakistan to shift the domestic narrative away from the unrest. They cited the past Pulwama and Pahalgam attacks as examples of incidents that could have wider security and political consequences, while stressing that any future attack remains a matter of concern rather than a certainty.

Security agencies are also monitoring activities attributed to groups operating as proxies. Officials said outfits such as the United Liberation Council (ULC) have issued threats against Kashmiri Pandits and migrant workers and called on local residents to take up arms against the administration.

Officials believe attempts to reignite violence through militant attacks, stone-pelting or other forms of unrest could simultaneously put pressure on Indian security forces and divert attention from Pakistan's internal difficulties.

Meanwhile, normal life remains severely affected across PoK as a major strike called by the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee has shut markets and businesses in several areas.

In Rawalakot, thousands of people are continuing their sit-in despite the presence of Pakistani security forces. Protests and demonstrations have also been reported from Bhimber, Mirpur, Neelum Valley and Muzaffarabad.

With the agitation showing few signs of abating, Indian security agencies are treating the situation as particularly sensitive. Officials said any attempt to exploit the unrest through an LoC confrontation or militant activity would require close monitoring to prevent the situation from escalating further.