India’s E-Retail Market Crosses $65 Billion, Set for Rapid Growth by 2030

New Delhi: India’s online retail sector has reached an estimated $65–66 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) in 2025 and is expected to grow at over 20% annually, touching $170–180 billion by 2030, according to a joint report by Bain & Company and Flipkart.

The report highlights that e-retail GMV grew by around 19–21% in 2025, with momentum picking up through the year due to improved macroeconomic conditions and stronger consumer sentiment.

A key driver behind this growth has been a rise in private consumption, which increased to 10.5% in 2025 compared to 8% during 2022–24. Factors such as GST reductions, income tax relief, easing inflation, and lower interest rates contributed to this surge. As a result, the second half of 2025 saw growth of 22–24%, with early 2026 estimates suggesting an even stronger 23–25% expansion.

Quick commerce—ultra-fast delivery services within 30 minutes—has emerged as a major growth engine. This segment has doubled annually over the past two years, reaching $10–11 billion in GMV in 2025 and is projected to scale up to $65–70 billion by 2030. Despite this rise, traditional e-retail is expected to remain dominant, accounting for 60–65% of the market by the end of the decade.

India is also positioning itself as a major global consumption hub, expected to contribute one in every eight incremental consumption dollars worldwide over the next five years.

The country’s online shopper base has more than doubled in the last five years, reaching 290–300 million users in 2025. This growth has been supported by an expanding seller ecosystem and deeper penetration into smaller cities and towns.

A significant share of this growth is being driven by Gen Z consumers, who now make up 40–45% of online shoppers and contribute nearly half of incremental orders. Their spending is rising much faster than other demographics, particularly in metro cities. This group is heavily influenced by social media trends, prefers immersive shopping formats like videos and live feeds, and increasingly uses instant credit options.

The report also noted distinct behavior patterns in quick commerce, where shoppers tend to make high-intent purchases, complete transactions quickly, and spend less than five minutes per session—about half the time compared to traditional e-commerce platforms.

With inputs from IANS