China may leverage Middle East tensions to widen influence in Asia: Report

New Delhi — The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could open up strategic space for China to expand its influence across Asia, especially as the United States remains deeply engaged in another geopolitical theatre, according to a report.

An analysis by Japan Forward suggests that the ripple effects of the Middle East crisis are reshaping the global strategic landscape far beyond the region itself. With American attention and resources tied up, other parts of Asia may become more vulnerable — conditions that China has historically been adept at exploiting.

The report highlights that Beijing’s strategy does not depend on triggering conflicts. Instead, it often benefits when major powers like the US are preoccupied elsewhere, allowing China to gradually strengthen its position without direct confrontation.

Citing historical precedents, the analysis notes that during the Iraq War, China expanded its footprint in the South China Sea with relatively limited resistance. A similar pattern was observed during the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, when China stepped up military pressure around Taiwan.

During that period, Taiwan reported over 900 sorties by China’s military into its Air Defense Identification Zone, reflecting a strategy of sustained pressure without crossing into outright conflict.

The report also points to the strategic implications of US military deployments. When key assets such as carrier strike groups are positioned in regions like the Eastern Mediterranean or the Red Sea, they are effectively absent from the Indo-Pacific, potentially altering the regional balance of power.

According to the analysis, China has increasingly relied on calibrated, incremental actions — including military drills and infrastructure expansion — to reshape the regional order while staying below the threshold of open escalation.

It also draws parallels with developments along India’s northern frontier, referencing the Galwan Valley clash and subsequent infrastructure build-up as part of a broader pattern of strategic positioning.

In conclusion, the report underscores that China’s approach is driven less by direct confrontation and more by timing and opportunity — steadily reshaping realities on the ground while avoiding immediate escalation.

With inputs from IANS