Rupee Climbs to 93.68 Against Dollar as Cheaper Oil and Foreign Inflows Boost Sentiment

New Delhi: The Indian rupee strengthened by 25 paise to 93.68 against the US dollar in early trading on Monday, supported by falling crude oil prices, improved foreign investment inflows and growing hopes of easing tensions in West Asia.

The latest appreciation extended the domestic currency's recovery after it recorded its strongest weekly gain of 2026 last week. The rupee rose approximately 1 per cent during the week, reaching its highest level since April.

On Friday, the currency had gained 43 paise to close at 93.98 against the dollar.

Market experts said the USD/INR pair opened near 93.90 and was trading around 93.70, continuing its downward movement after breaking below the 94.40-94.50 range.

According to analysts, the 94-mark, which previously acted as a support level, has now emerged as immediate resistance. The 93.90-94.00 range represents the first hurdle for the currency pair, while the next major resistance is placed between 94.40 and 94.50.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at 93.40-93.50, followed by the 92.90-93.00 range.

Technical indicators suggest that the rupee could see further movement in either direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering around 25, indicates deeply oversold conditions for the dollar-rupee pair. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to point towards strong bearish momentum, although experts have not ruled out a technical rebound.

The near-term outlook for the USD/INR pair remains bearish. Analysts believe a sustained move above 94 would be necessary to signal stabilisation, while a decisive fall below 93.50 could open the door for a further decline towards 93.

The rupee's recent recovery has received support from several favourable developments, including foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows of around $1.5 billion, a weaker US dollar, lower international crude prices and reduced concerns about India's energy import bill.

Crude oil prices also moved lower on Monday, offering additional relief to the Indian economy, which depends heavily on imported oil. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was trading 0.15 per cent lower at $98.17 per barrel in futures trading.

Investor sentiment improved following remarks by US President Donald Trump over the weekend suggesting that further military strikes against Iran were unlikely if negotiations over its nuclear programme and the strategically important Strait of Hormuz made substantial progress.

Trump also acknowledged that the conflict had contributed to higher oil and petrol prices, which had become a political concern and contributed to Republican losses in the US midterm elections.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index slipped towards the 102 level but retained most of its previous gains following stronger-than-expected US employment data. The latest figures strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a tighter monetary policy.

Markets are now assigning an approximately 81 per cent probability to a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December, up from 71 per cent before the release of the employment report.

The movement in the rupee will remain closely linked to crude oil prices, foreign investor activity, developments in West Asia and the direction of US monetary policy. For India, sustained currency appreciation could help moderate the cost of imported crude oil and ease pressure on the country's import bill, although continued global uncertainty may keep the foreign exchange market volatile.

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